Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1309 at 06:02, 5%.

Safest bet that day UA 1309 MCO 06:02 → EWR 08:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 1728 MCO 19:03 → EWR 21:45 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Weather 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1309 United Flight history →	MCO 06:02	EWR 08:54	5%	2%	0.9%	96%
UA 1105 United Flight history →	MCO 06:30	EWR 09:15	6%	2%	0.9%	95%
UA 1227 United Flight history →	MCO 09:10	EWR 11:53	12%	3%	0.9%	91%
UA 1081 United	MCO 10:28	EWR 13:05	15%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 254 United	MCO 11:50	EWR 14:45	15%	4%	0.9%	no record
B6 2028 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:50	EWR 12:28	15%	3%	1.2%	81%
UA 1626 United	MCO 12:56	EWR 15:47	22%	5%	1.2%	no record
F9 2512 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 22:15	EWR 01:05	25%	10%	2.3%	90%worse than usual
UA 1643 United Flight history →	MCO 14:37	EWR 17:30	28%	8%	1.2%	74%
UA 2629 United Flight history →	MCO 16:04	EWR 18:57	34%	9%	1.6%	63%
UA 1407 United	MCO 19:12	EWR 21:50	42%	17%	2.1%	no record
UA 776 United Flight history →	MCO 17:25	EWR 20:03	48%	17%	1.9%	71%worse than usual
UA 2662 United	MCO 18:02	EWR 20:41	48%	18%	2.1%	no record
B6 1728 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 19:03	EWR 21:45	51%	16%	2.7%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON