Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 23%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: B6 69 at 08:44, 8%.

Safest bet that day B6 69 MCO 08:44 → FLL 10:12 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3160 MCO 19:22 → FLL 20:28 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Weather 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 69 JetBlue	MCO 08:44	FLL 10:12	8%	3%	0.9%	no record
B6 2547 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:05	FLL 11:12	13%	5%	0.9%	80%
AA 1333 American	MCO 12:29	FLL 13:52	16%	6%	1.3%	no record
WN 4056 Southwest	MCO 12:06	FLL 13:06	17%	4%	0.8%	no record
B6 1947 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:25	FLL 19:37	41%	15%	2.3%	65%
WN 3160 Southwest	MCO 19:22	FLL 20:28	46%	14%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON