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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 94% chance of reaching Grand Rapids on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:05 → DTW 08:54DL 1201 3h 51m Detroit DTW 12:45 → GRR 13:47DL 5390 · flown by Endeavor 7h 42m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250 3h 27m Minneapolis MSP 12:53 → GRR 15:23DL 1245 8h 23m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 09:49 → GRR 11:43DL 2547 6h 13m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → MCO 16:51 → ORD 18:58AA 1782 3h 42m Chicago ORD 22:40 → GRR 00:34 +1AA 3793 · flown by Envoy 7h 43m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 15:19 → GRR 17:14DL 2058 7h 09m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:10 → EWR 11:53UA 1227 1h 59m Newark EWR 13:52 → GRR 16:03UA 3419 · flown by Republic 6h 53m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 11:17 → MSP 13:43DL 1730 2h 19m Minneapolis MSP 16:02 → GRR 18:26DL 1555 7h 09m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCO 14:05 → ATL 15:55DL 1030 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → GRR 21:51DL 2210 7h 46m 97% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 16:22 → PHL 19:04AA 3153 51m Philadelphia PHL 19:55 → GRR 22:02AA 5493 · flown by PSA 5h 40m 59% 52%
DeltaDetails → MCO 18:52 → ATL 20:54DL 1742 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → GRR 23:54DL 2865 5h 02m 58% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON