Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4033 at 06:23, 3%.

Safest bet today WN 4033 MCO 06:23 → HOU 07:49 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 662 MCO 17:55 → HOU 19:26 · 60% chance 15+ min late

Weather 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4033 Southwest	MCO 06:23	HOU 07:49	3%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 2871 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:20	HOU 08:41	5%	2%	0.4%	67%
WN 1110 Southwest	MCO 08:48	HOU 10:12	10%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 4967 Southwest	MCO 10:17	HOU 11:56	15%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 1183 Southwest	MCO 11:18	HOU 12:44	21%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 2724 Southwest	MCO 20:38	HOU 22:04	46%	22%	1.6%	no record
WN 46 Southwest	MCO 15:24	HOU 16:47	48%	10%	1.3%	no record
WN 2722 Southwest	MCO 19:12	HOU 20:39	56%	22%	1.8%	no record
WN 2721 Southwest	MCO 17:02	HOU 18:28	58%	23%	1.3%	no record
WN 662 Southwest	MCO 17:55	HOU 19:26	60%	22%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON