Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2746 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 2746 MCO 08:50 → IAD 11:27 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 9436 MCO 16:52 → IAD 19:29 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2746 United	MCO 08:50	IAD 11:27	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
F9 4230 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 08:03	IAD 10:32	13%	4%	1.2%	77%
UA 1893 United Flight history →	MCO 09:37	IAD 11:55	13%	2%	0.9%	93%
UA 1757 United Flight history →	MCO 12:44	IAD 15:09	13%	3%	1.0%	83%
UA 390 United	MCO 18:17	IAD 20:41	22%	7%	1.2%	no record
UA 1997 United Flight history →	MCO 19:05	IAD 21:30	22%	8%	1.2%	67%
F9 9436 Frontier	MCO 16:52	IAD 19:29	24%	9%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON