Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: F9 1539 at 07:43 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–35%.

Safest bet that day F9 1539 MCO 07:43 → IND 10:21 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 2705 MCO 19:20 → IND 21:47 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1539 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:43	IND 10:21	5%	3%	1.8%	86%
WN 2036 Southwest	MCO 09:08	IND 11:37	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 229 Southwest	MCO 12:37	IND 15:05	11%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 3270 Southwest	MCO 14:29	IND 16:54	18%	4%	1.2%	no record
WN 2705 Southwest	MCO 19:20	IND 21:47	35%	14%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON