Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 12–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 368 MCO 10:35 → ISP 13:15 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1198 MCO 12:30 → ISP 15:02 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 368 Southwest	MCO 10:35	ISP 13:15	12%	2%	0.9%	no record
F9 1238 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:26	ISP 17:23	15%	7%	1.6%	83%
B6 546 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 13:42	ISP 16:37	18%	6%	1.6%	90%
WN 1198 Southwest	MCO 12:30	ISP 15:02	19%	4%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON