Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2702 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 2702 MCO 06:00 → JFK 08:43 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 1685 MCO 19:40 → JFK 22:20 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2702 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:00	JFK 08:43	2%	1%	1.2%	93%
DL 2693 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:40	JFK 10:17	4%	2%	1.2%	88%
B6 884 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 06:04	JFK 08:45	5%	1%	1.2%	53%
DL 2049 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:05	JFK 13:46	10%	3%	1.2%	82%
B6 384 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:47	JFK 12:30	11%	3%	1.2%	68%
DL 2775 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:22	JFK 18:45	16%	6%	1.8%	74%
B6 1084 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:57	JFK 17:44	22%	5%	1.9%	79%
B6 2984 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 16:05	JFK 18:54	28%	6%	2.7%	56%
DL 1685 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:40	JFK 22:20	30%	19%	2.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON