Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 17%, against 7% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2600 at 08:58, 6%.

Safest bet that day WN 2600 MCO 08:58 → MCI 10:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2603 MCO 19:03 → MCI 20:58 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Weather 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2600 Southwest	MCO 08:58	MCI 10:40	6%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 2170 Southwest	MCO 10:36	MCI 12:29	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 2602 Southwest	MCO 14:25	MCI 16:26	20%	5%	1.3%	no record
WN 2603 Southwest	MCO 19:03	MCI 20:58	37%	14%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON