tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 2513 at 09:05, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2513 Southwest MCO 09:05 MEM 10:14 12% 2% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778 6h 27m 99% 90%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:21 → HOU 08:35WN 2871 2h 30m Houston HOU 11:05 → MEM 12:45WN 2463 6h 24m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:48 → CLT 07:35AA 2127 2h 43m Charlotte CLT 10:18 → MEM 11:13AA 1354 6h 25m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 13:47 → MEM 14:11DL 733 6h 06m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937 6h 02m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 11:17 → MSP 13:43DL 1730 2h 02m Minneapolis MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest 7h 35m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → MCO 08:06 → DFW 10:12AA 2961 2h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:38 → MEM 14:15AA 3888 · flown by Envoy 7h 09m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 15:08 → MEM 15:30DL 1700 6h 25m 97% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCO 17:25 → EWR 20:02UA 776 1h 21m Newark EWR 21:23 → MEM 23:30UA 3563 · flown by Republic 7h 05m 68% 59%
DeltaDetails → MCO 15:47 → LGA 18:50DL 2564 53m New York LGA 19:43 → MEM 21:32DL 5606 · flown by Republic 6h 45m 67% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON