Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1250 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 1250 MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 2225 MCO 18:24 → MSP 21:00 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1250 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:00	MSP 09:26	5%	2%	1.2%	93%
DL 1654 Delta	MCO 09:03	MSP 11:29	9%	3%	1.2%	no record
DL 1730 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:17	MSP 13:43	11%	3%	1.2%	90%
DL 1208 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:00	MSP 17:39	19%	6%	1.3%	74%
DL 2225 Delta Flight history →	MCO 18:24	MSP 21:00	24%	12%	1.3%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	46m Atlanta	ATL 08:44 → MSP 10:18DL 2960	5h 03m	90%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON