Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 7% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2618 at 09:13, 13%.

Safest bet that day WN 2618 MCO 09:13 → MSY 10:13 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3173 MCO 19:36 → MSY 20:13 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Weather 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2618 Southwest	MCO 09:13	MSY 10:13	13%	3%	1.0%	no record
F9 1431 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:20	MSY 14:13	22%	9%	1.9%	82%
WN 4615 Southwest	MCO 14:40	MSY 15:27	26%	6%	1.3%	no record
WN 3173 Southwest	MCO 19:36	MSY 20:13	42%	17%	3.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON