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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025 1h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 11:09 → ONT 12:12DL 1173 7h 57m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 8h 08m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → MCO 08:17 → DFW 10:01AA 2961 2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:24 → ONT 13:48AA 2635 8h 31m 100% 88%
FrontierDetails → MCO 09:40 → DFW 11:39F9 2885 3h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:35 → ONT 17:16F9 4689 10h 36m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 3h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:39 → ONT 11:55AA 2956 9h 25m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → SEA 12:12DL 347 2h 18m Seattle SEA 14:30 → ONT 17:21DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest 11h 16m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MCO 14:05 → ATL 15:55DL 1030 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 18:55 → ONT 20:41DL 2891 9h 36m 95% 80%
JetBlueDetails → MCO 14:57 → JFK 17:44B6 1084 1h 45m New York JFK 19:29 → ONT 22:35B6 355 10h 38m 91% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCO 19:25 → SLC 22:11DL 1691 48m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 7h 23m 57% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON