Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: WN 159 at 09:43 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day


WN 159 Southwest	MCO 09:43	ORF 11:44	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
F9 2288 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:29	ORF 20:39	22%	10%	3.2%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 06:05 → DTW 08:54DL 1201	1h 13m Detroit	DTW 10:07 → ORF 12:02DL 3066	5h 57m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 12:23 → ORF 14:10DL 2925	7h 05m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 09:46 → ORF 11:28DL 2755	5h 58m	99%	91%
American Details →	MCO 07:01 → CLT 08:52AA 1647	3h 48m Charlotte	CLT 12:40 → ORF 13:59AA 2911	6h 58m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101	6h 45m	99%	89%
American Details →	MCO 08:02 → CLT 09:51AA 461	3h 56m Charlotte	CLT 13:47 → ORF 15:01AA 1323	6h 59m	100%	88%
JetBlue Details →	MCO 10:12 → BOS 13:16B6 552	2h 11m Boston	BOS 15:27 → ORF 17:10B6 1813	6h 58m	99%	87%
United Details →	MCO 09:37 → IAD 11:55UA 1893	1h 10m Dulles	IAD 13:05 → ORF 14:17UA 6313 · flown by Mesa	4h 40m	95%	87%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MCO 17:51 → DTW 20:54DL 337	46m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → ORF 23:32DL 412	5h 41m	70%	64%
Delta Details →	MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:47DL 1150	49m Atlanta	ATL 20:36 → ORF 22:16DL 2731	4h 31m	73%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON