Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 301 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 17:29	PDX 20:34	33%	14%	2.7%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250	1h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:40DL 1661	8h 40m	98%	93%
Delta Details →	MCO 11:17 → MSP 13:43DL 1730	2h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	9h 18m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	9h 43m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	7h 55m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	MCO 12:05 → ATL 13:45DL 1658	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	9h 51m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → PDX 10:27DL 539	7h 57m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031	1h 56m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244	8h 24m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MCO 14:05 → ATL 15:55DL 1030	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 19:46 → PDX 21:55DL 691	10h 50m	98%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON