Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1605 at 07:44 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1605 MCO 07:44 → PHX 09:38 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2629 MCO 17:38 → PHX 19:06 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1605 American	MCO 07:44	PHX 09:38	9%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 3480 Southwest	MCO 10:27	PHX 12:10	11%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 2629 Southwest	MCO 17:38	PHX 19:06	28%	13%	2.3%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348	6h 31m	97%	88%
United Details →	MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468	1h 05m Houston	IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895	6h 34m	95%	83%
American Details →	MCO 07:30 → DFW 09:29AA 599	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:22 → PHX 11:03AA 520	6h 33m	88%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON