Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 222 at 08:38 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 222 MCO 08:38 → PIT 11:03 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4275 MCO 20:12 → PIT 22:18 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 222 Southwest	MCO 08:38	PIT 11:03	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
F9 1620 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:06	PIT 13:33	10%	5%	1.2%	77%
WN 2219 Southwest	MCO 12:20	PIT 14:36	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2634 Southwest	MCO 15:44	PIT 18:07	17%	6%	1.2%	no record
WN 4275 Southwest	MCO 20:12	PIT 22:18	24%	9%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON