Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:53 am at Orlando)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: MX 1553 at 12:03, 31%.

Nonstops today


MX 1553 Breeze	MCO 12:03	PNS 12:44	31%	10%	1.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 08:06 → PNS 08:27DL 1539	3h 57m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → PNS 12:38DL 1640	6h 33m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198	5h 36m	99%	88%
American Details →	MCO 06:00 → DFW 07:59AA 2677	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:04 → PNS 10:58AA 3982 · flown by Envoy	5h 58m	92%	82%
American Details →	MCO 05:50 → CLT 07:36AA 2127	2h 40m Charlotte	CLT 10:16 → PNS 11:05AA 2476	6h 15m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013	6h 08m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	MCO 12:05 → ATL 13:45DL 1658	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	5h 58m	98%	80%
Southwest Details →	MCO 12:03 → BNA 13:02WN 2510	3h 57m Nashville	BNA 16:59 → PNS 18:32WN 1177	7h 29m	100%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MCO 14:05 → ATL 15:55DL 1030	53m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	3h 58m	69%	56%
American Details →	MCO 08:08 → DFW 10:13AA 2961	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:00 → PNS 12:55AA 3243	5h 47m	66%	53%
American Details →	MCO 14:51 → CLT 16:37AA 2117	1h 03m Charlotte	CLT 17:40 → PNS 18:26AA 5429 · flown by PSA	4h 35m	70%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON