Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 21%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: B6 670 at 14:02, 21%.

Nonstops that day


B6 670 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:02	RIC 16:11	21%	7%	1.2%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 12:34 → RIC 14:15DL 3152	7h 10m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650	6h 26m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:02 → DTW 11:45DL 2845	2h 45m Detroit	DTW 14:30 → RIC 16:13DL 3073	7h 11m	99%	92%
American Details →	MCO 07:28 → PHL 10:05AA 1228	2h 01m Philadelphia	PHL 12:06 → RIC 13:29AA 6062 · flown by Piedmont	6h 01m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214	6h 18m	96%	89%
American Details →	MCO 05:48 → CLT 07:35AA 2127	2h 59m Charlotte	CLT 10:34 → RIC 12:02AA 5119 · flown by PSA	6h 14m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MCO 12:05 → ATL 13:45DL 1658	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 17:12 → RIC 18:53DL 1348	6h 48m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 10:39 → RIC 14:07DL 5063 · flown by Endeavor	7h 07m	97%	88%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	MCO 18:25 → FLL 19:37B6 1947	1h 18m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:55 → RIC 23:18B6 1146	4h 53m	67%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON