tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 2821 at 13:16, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2821 Southwest MCO 13:16 ROC 15:55 16% 6% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:23 → ROC 11:31DL 2511 6h 01m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:01 → CLT 08:52AA 1647 1h 30m Charlotte CLT 10:22 → ROC 12:16AA 2742 5h 15m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → ROC 17:20DL 2047 7h 15m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:40 → ORD 11:48UA 2683 3h 43m Chicago ORD 15:31 → ROC 18:18UA 1239 8h 38m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → MCO 12:34 → ORD 14:42UA 2475 3h 47m Chicago ORD 18:29 → ROC 21:22UA 1568 8h 48m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → MCO 11:32 → DCA 13:49AA 2128 1h 46m Washington DCA 15:35 → ROC 17:11AA 5457 · flown by PSA 5h 39m 98% 79%
JetBlueDetails → MCO 16:05 → JFK 18:54B6 2984 3h 16m New York JFK 22:10 → ROC 23:49B6 1186 7h 44m 95% 78%
AmericanDetails → MCO 16:09 → PHL 18:53AA 3153 3h 17m Philadelphia PHL 22:10 → ROC 23:41AA 6090 · flown by Piedmont 7h 32m 100% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCO 12:34 → ORD 14:42UA 2475 49m Chicago ORD 15:31 → ROC 18:18UA 1239 5h 44m 74% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON