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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 397 Alaska Flight history → MCO 19:20 SAN 21:27 37% 16% 3.2% 74%worse than usual
WN 2642 Southwest MCO 17:29 SAN 19:15 41% 16% 3.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250 2h 12m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 9h 24m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 10:04 → SAN 11:43DL 843 9h 13m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:05 → DTW 08:54DL 1201 3h 39m Detroit DTW 12:33 → SAN 14:26DL 761 11h 21m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 53m 100% 88%
JetBlueDetails → MCO 10:12 → BOS 13:16B6 552 3h 04m Boston BOS 16:20 → SAN 19:27B6 319 12h 15m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 11:05 → JFK 13:46DL 2049 3h 44m New York JFK 17:30 → SAN 20:34DL 709 12h 29m 99% 87%
JetBlueDetails → MCO 09:47 → JFK 12:30B6 384 3h 29m New York JFK 15:59 → SAN 19:01B6 1189 12h 14m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468 3h 25m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 9h 21m 100% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCO 17:19 → IAH 18:58UA 1872 52m Houston IAH 19:50 → SAN 21:19UA 1911 7h 00m 52% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON