tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2644 at 18:03, 35%.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2644 Southwest MCO 18:03 SAT 19:51 35% 16% 2.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:21 → HOU 08:35WN 2871 2h 58m Houston HOU 11:33 → SAT 12:36WN 813 6h 15m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 08:20 → SAT 09:43DL 1676 5h 13m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 33m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MCO 12:34 → IAD 15:03UA 1757 2h 42m Dulles IAD 17:45 → SAT 20:22UA 1869 8h 48m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 7h 05m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:00 → ORD 10:57UA 2466 2h 33m Chicago ORD 13:30 → SAT 16:29UA 2844 8h 29m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:02 → DTW 11:45DL 2845 1h 56m Detroit DTW 13:41 → SAT 15:51DL 2458 7h 49m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → MCO 09:01 → CLT 10:54AA 609 3h 57m Charlotte CLT 14:51 → SAT 16:42AA 2934 8h 41m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCO 17:19 → IAH 18:58UA 1872 1h 07m Houston IAH 20:05 → SAT 21:13UA 1542 4h 54m 72% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON