Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 22%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: DL 347 at 09:05, 13%.

Safest bet that day DL 347 MCO 09:05 → SEA 12:12 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 419 MCO 19:25 → SEA 21:53 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Weather 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 347 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:05	SEA 12:12	13%	3%	1.3%	86%
AS 468 Alaska	MCO 09:38	SEA 12:01	23%	3%	1.0%	no record
DL 328 Delta Flight history →	MCO 18:45	SEA 22:05	23%	8%	2.1%	68%
AS 419 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 19:25	SEA 21:53	27%	6%	1.6%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204	52m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	7h 45m	91%	82%
Southwest Details →	MCO 07:21 → HOU 08:35WN 2871	1h 07m Houston	HOU 09:42 → SEA 12:11WN 2690	7h 50m	93%	76%
Delta Details →	MCO 12:05 → ATL 13:45DL 1658	53m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	7h 44m	82%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON