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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2802 United MCO 09:57 SFO 13:01 9% 4% 0.8% no record
UA 324 United MCO 14:57 SFO 18:03 14% 6% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:00 → JFK 08:43DL 2702 2h 32m New York JFK 11:15 → SFO 14:33DL 363 11h 33m 99% 90%
JetBlueDetails → MCO 09:47 → JFK 12:30B6 384 3h 15m New York JFK 15:45 → SFO 19:11B6 415 12h 24m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:37 → IAD 11:55UA 1893 2h 56m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 11h 01m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCO 11:05 → JFK 13:46DL 2049 2h 44m New York JFK 16:30 → SFO 20:06DL 365 12h 01m 98% 89%
JetBlueDetails → MCO 06:04 → JFK 08:45B6 884 1h 45m New York JFK 10:30 → SFO 14:08B6 215 11h 04m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250 1h 34m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 9h 09m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 12:03 → SFO 13:52DL 672 9h 47m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693 7h 50m 98% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → MCO 14:57 → JFK 17:44B6 1084 46m New York JFK 18:30 → SFO 22:10B6 615 10h 13m 62% 55%
JetBlueDetails → MCO 18:25 → FLL 19:37B6 1947 1h 18m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:55 → SFO 23:51B6 277 8h 26m 63% 52%
AmericanDetails → MCO 16:38 → ORD 18:45AA 1782 51m Chicago ORD 19:36 → SFO 22:19AA 2856 8h 41m 61% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON