tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025 1h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 8h 20m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 9h 00m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031 1h 49m Salt Lake City SLC 15:10 → SJC 16:04DL 1260 8h 19m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → SEA 12:12DL 347 2h 33m Seattle SEA 14:45 → SJC 17:05DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest 11h 00m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:30 → DFW 09:29AA 599 2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:13 → SJC 13:57AA 2834 9h 27m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:21 → HOU 08:35WN 2871 1h 08m Houston HOU 09:43 → SJC 11:48WN 537 7h 27m 95% 88%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:09 → SJC 10:52AA 2046 8h 22m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 15:40 → ATL 17:30DL 1372 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 10h 09m 95% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:47DL 1150 1h 12m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 8h 04m 71% 64%
DeltaDetails → MCO 15:00 → MSP 17:39DL 1208 51m Minneapolis MSP 18:30 → SJC 20:35DL 2087 8h 35m 73% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON