Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2025 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 2025 MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 1691 MCO 19:25 → SLC 22:11 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2025 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:15	SLC 09:55	2%	1%	1.2%	94%
DL 2031 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:45	SLC 13:21	6%	2%	1.2%	85%
DL 1140 Delta	MCO 16:47	SLC 19:18	14%	4%	1.3%	no record
DL 1691 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:25	SLC 22:11	15%	4%	1.3%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	6h 44m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	6h 45m	93%	85%
Southwest Details →	MCO 07:21 → HOU 08:35WN 2871	54m Houston	HOU 09:29 → SLC 11:28WN 2031	6h 07m	93%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON