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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Southwest via Hobby, leaving 07:21, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:21 → HOU 08:35WN 2871 2h 19m Houston HOU 10:54 → SMF 12:51WN 1809 8h 30m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025 1h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 8h 01m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 30m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250 58m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 09m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → SEA 12:12DL 347 2h 28m Seattle SEA 14:40 → SMF 16:39DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest 10h 34m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MCO 12:34 → IAD 15:04UA 1757 2h 51m Dulles IAD 17:55 → SMF 20:40UA 2435 11h 06m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031 2h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 15:25 → SMF 16:07DL 1342 8h 22m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:30 → ORD 08:36AA 938 3h 04m Chicago ORD 11:40 → SMF 14:16AA 1906 10h 46m 100% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:47DL 1150 1h 12m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682 8h 08m 69% 61%
DeltaDetails → MCO 19:25 → SLC 22:11DL 1691 53m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 7h 19m 61% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON