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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: American via DFW, leaving 08:17, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MCO 08:17 → DFW 10:01AA 2961 2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:25 → SNA 13:59AA 2465 8h 42m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:30 → DFW 09:29AA 599 3h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:14 → SNA 14:38AA 1933 10h 08m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:37 → SNA 11:15AA 1939 8h 45m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468 3h 53m Houston IAH 12:28 → SNA 14:15UA 1533 10h 15m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → MCO 12:34 → IAD 15:03UA 1757 2h 31m Dulles IAD 17:34 → SNA 19:59UA 2319 10h 25m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → MCO 09:30 → DFW 11:24AA 2075 3h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:36 → SNA 15:55AA 2659 9h 25m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → MCO 12:50 → DEN 14:51UA 1520 3h 01m Denver DEN 17:52 → SNA 19:33UA 1291 9h 43m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:10 → EWR 11:53UA 1227 2h 43m Newark EWR 14:36 → SNA 17:26UA 2477 11h 16m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:47DL 1150 1h 12m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 7h 40m 74% 61%
UnitedDetails → MCO 17:19 → IAH 18:58UA 1872 1h 04m Houston IAH 20:02 → SNA 21:49UA 326 7h 30m 69% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON