Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: B6 2656 at 12:45, 23%.

Nonstops that day


B6 2656 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:45	SYR 15:41	23%	6%	1.3%	81%
B6 1656 JetBlue	MCO 16:39	SYR 19:33	35%	16%	2.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Syracuse on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 06:05 → DTW 08:54DL 1201	2h 40m Detroit	DTW 11:34 → SYR 13:02DL 5533 · flown by Endeavor	6h 57m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 12:37 → SYR 14:48DL 2991	7h 43m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MCO 08:37 → DTW 11:14DL 2845	3h 11m Detroit	DTW 14:25 → SYR 15:53DL 5465 · flown by Endeavor	7h 16m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → SYR 11:25DL 1375	5h 55m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:25 → JFK 11:54DL 2702	2h 47m New York	JFK 14:41 → SYR 15:54DL 5328 · flown by Endeavor	6h 29m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	MCO 11:05 → ATL 12:42DL 1213	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → SYR 17:59DL 2690	6h 54m	97%	87%
American Details →	MCO 16:22 → PHL 19:03AA 3153	2h 58m Philadelphia	PHL 22:01 → SYR 23:17AA 6103 · flown by Piedmont	6h 55m	100%	84%
United Details →	MCO 09:05 → ORD 11:14UA 2466	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → SYR 16:48UA 2343	7h 43m	98%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCO 16:51 → ORD 18:57AA 1782	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 20:00 → SYR 23:08AA 2755	6h 17m	54%	42%
Delta Details →	MCO 18:52 → ATL 20:54DL 1742	53m Atlanta	ATL 21:47 → SYR 00:01 +1DL 2841	5h 09m	48%	42%
Delta Details →	MCO 19:41 → JFK 22:20DL 1685	50m New York	JFK 23:10 → SYR 00:23 +1DL 5371 · flown by Endeavor	4h 42m	47%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON