Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 4714 at 07:00, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 4714 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MDT 07:00	BOS 08:31	6%	3%	0.6%	96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDT 06:04 → ATL 08:02DL 1255	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855	6h 41m	98%	91%
United Details →	MDT 06:30 → ORD 07:42UA 2684	1h 47m Chicago	ORD 09:29 → BOS 13:07UA 1367	6h 37m	97%	88%
American Details →	MDT 08:14 → CLT 09:51AA 6001 · flown by Piedmont	2h 32m Charlotte	CLT 12:23 → BOS 14:59AA 3314	6h 45m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MDT 11:41 → ATL 13:42DL 1248	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → BOS 19:30DL 518	7h 49m	99%	85%
American Details →	MDT 08:24 → CLT 10:08AA 5638 · flown by PSA	2h 08m Charlotte	CLT 12:16 → BOS 14:33AA 1140	6h 09m	97%	83%
American Details →	MDT 07:55 → CLT 09:35AA 6070 · flown by Piedmont	1h 03m Charlotte	CLT 10:38 → BOS 12:47AA 1809	4h 52m	94%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON