Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 11 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5638 MDT 08:24 → CLT 10:08 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest PT 5953 MDT 14:31 → CLT 16:06 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5638 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MDT 08:24	CLT 10:08	8%	4%	0.7%	88%
PT 5931 Piedmont	MDT 06:01	CLT 07:42	8%	2%	1.1%	no record
AA 6070 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	MDT 07:55	CLT 09:36	9%	3%	0.8%	87%
AA 6001 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	MDT 08:14	CLT 09:51	10%	3%	0.8%	78%
AA 2198 American	MDT 11:00	CLT 12:40	10%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 3028 American	MDT 11:06	CLT 12:45	10%	3%	1.2%	no record
PT 5828 Piedmont	MDT 12:45	CLT 14:22	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
PT 5841 Piedmont	MDT 16:12	CLT 17:48	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
PT 5932 Piedmont	MDT 16:30	CLT 18:09	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
OH 5092 PSA	MDT 14:47	CLT 16:25	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
PT 5953 Piedmont	MDT 14:31	CLT 16:06	14%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON