Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:41, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 977 American Flight history →	MDT 07:05	DFW 09:31	10%	4%	1.0%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Harrisburg). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDT 06:04 → ATL 08:02DL 1255	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414	7h 40m	99%	89%
United Details →	MDT 06:30 → ORD 07:42UA 2684	2h 43m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → DFW 13:08UA 441	7h 38m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MDT 18:22 → ATL 20:35DL 2857	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	6h 51m	98%	86%
American Details →	MDT 08:14 → CLT 09:51AA 6001 · flown by Piedmont	3h 20m Charlotte	CLT 13:11 → DFW 15:09AA 1690	7h 55m	100%	85%
American Details →	MDT 07:55 → CLT 09:37AA 6070 · flown by Piedmont	1h 20m Charlotte	CLT 10:57 → DFW 12:48AA 2747	5h 53m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	MDT 11:41 → ATL 13:42DL 1248	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 15:34 → DFW 16:55DL 374	6h 14m	98%	84%
American Details →	MDT 08:24 → CLT 10:08AA 5638 · flown by PSA	3h 50m Charlotte	CLT 13:58 → DFW 15:49AA 625	8h 25m	99%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON