Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9E 5049 MDT 06:06 → DTW 07:53 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest 9E 5053 MDT 17:07 → DTW 18:42 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 5049 Endeavor	MDT 06:06	DTW 07:53	4%	3%	0.6%	no record
9E 5504 Endeavor	MDT 06:14	DTW 07:51	5%	3%	0.6%	no record
9E 4671 Endeavor	MDT 12:14	DTW 13:51	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
9E 5055 Endeavor	MDT 12:10	DTW 13:41	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
9E 5497 Endeavor	MDT 17:11	DTW 18:48	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
9E 5053 Endeavor	MDT 17:07	DTW 18:42	9%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON