Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:10 am at Harrisburg)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


G7 4591 GoJet	MDT 14:57	IAD 16:13	9%	1%	0.7%	no record
G7 4538 GoJet	MDT 16:47	IAD 17:46	10%	2%	0.8%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDT 11:41 → ATL 13:42DL 1248	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 15:29 → IAD 17:24DL 1554	5h 43m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MDT 17:59 → ATL 20:07DL 2857	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	6h 42m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON