Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 739 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19%.

Safest bet that day AA 739 MDT 05:58 → ORD 07:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3243 MDT 19:45 → ORD 21:16 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 739 American	MDT 05:58	ORD 07:10	6%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 2684 United Flight history →	MDT 06:30	ORD 07:42	7%	3%	0.6%	85%
MQ 4212 Envoy	MDT 12:24	ORD 13:23	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 6054 SkyWest	MDT 10:40	ORD 11:43	11%	6%	0.7%	no record
YX 3516 Republic	MDT 14:04	ORD 15:07	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2134 United	MDT 17:42	ORD 18:42	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 3243 American Flight history →	MDT 19:45	ORD 21:16	19%	6%	0.8%	62%
UA 4185 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	MDT 10:40	ORD 11:56	6%	3%	0.0%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON