Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1285 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–8%.

Safest bet that day DL 1285 MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 2292 MDW 06:05 → ATL 09:22 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1285 Delta Flight history →	MDW 06:00	ATL 08:57	4%	2%	0.7%	90%
WN 2828 Southwest	MDW 08:33	ATL 11:33	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2417 Delta Flight history →	MDW 12:41	ATL 15:43	5%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 1063 Delta Flight history →	MDW 11:05	ATL 14:01	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1728 Delta Flight history →	MDW 17:10	ATL 20:22	7%	2%	0.6%	74%
WN 487 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 13:08	ATL 15:59	8%	2%	0.5%	100%
WN 4678 Southwest	MDW 19:21	ATL 22:20	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 235 Southwest	MDW 15:40	ATL 18:31	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 2292 Frontier Flight history →	MDW 06:05	ATL 09:22	16%	4%	1.3%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON