Today: WN 2038 at 07:48 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet today WN 2038 MDW 07:48 → BDL 10:54 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1925 MDW 18:08 → BDL 21:13 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2038 Southwest	MDW 07:48	BDL 10:54	7%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 105 Southwest	MDW 08:44	BDL 11:58	8%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 2674 Southwest	MDW 13:09	BDL 16:20	20%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 4359 Southwest	MDW 18:34	BDL 21:49	20%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2364 Southwest	MDW 13:13	BDL 16:18	22%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 1925 Southwest	MDW 18:08	BDL 21:13	22%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON