Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 1548 at 16:41, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1548 Southwest	MDW 16:41	BHM 18:20	8%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	5h 10m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 23:05 → BHM 23:02DL 2034	5h 52m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 19:19 → BHM 19:22DL 3044	6h 41m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484	5h 17m	99%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON