Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 2–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1409 MDW 07:41 → BNA 09:16 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 280 MDW 20:19 → BNA 21:40 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1409 Southwest	MDW 07:41	BNA 09:16	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2676 Southwest	MDW 10:04	BNA 11:25	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 240 Southwest	MDW 12:51	BNA 14:15	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2677 Southwest	MDW 14:35	BNA 15:59	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4859 Southwest	MDW 17:18	BNA 18:40	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 280 Southwest	MDW 20:19	BNA 21:40	11%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON