Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1097 Southwest	MDW 13:31	CHS 16:43	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2694 Southwest	MDW 17:51	CHS 20:51	19%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → CHS 13:42DL 2179	6h 42m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → CHS 00:26 +1DL 2850	6h 16m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 17:44 → CHS 18:59DL 3179	6h 54m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 19:33 → CHS 20:49DL 2493	7h 08m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON