Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4969 MDW 08:30 → CLE 10:47 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 374 MDW 18:27 → CLE 20:47 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4969 Southwest	MDW 08:30	CLE 10:47	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3666 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 12:43	CLE 14:55	5%	1%	0.5%	90%
WN 3643 Southwest	MDW 16:08	CLE 18:28	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 374 Southwest	MDW 18:27	CLE 20:47	8%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON