Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2706 MDW 06:01 → DAL 08:18 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1005 MDW 19:46 → DAL 22:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2706 Southwest	MDW 06:01	DAL 08:18	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 199 Southwest	MDW 08:21	DAL 10:48	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1356 Southwest	MDW 15:20	DAL 17:30	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1148 Southwest	MDW 11:26	DAL 13:36	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 966 Southwest	MDW 13:45	DAL 15:55	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2711 Southwest	MDW 17:49	DAL 19:59	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1005 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 19:46	DAL 22:00	9%	2%	0.6%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON