Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2608 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 2608 MDW 06:11 → DCA 09:02 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4931 MDW 20:35 → DCA 23:24 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2608 Southwest	MDW 06:11	DCA 09:02	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1295 Southwest	MDW 08:15	DCA 11:13	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 120 Southwest	MDW 11:05	DCA 13:59	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3946 Southwest	MDW 13:07	DCA 16:01	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 336 Southwest	MDW 16:04	DCA 18:57	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4931 Southwest	MDW 20:35	DCA 23:24	14%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON