Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2717 at 06:41 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 2717 MDW 06:41 → DEN 08:16 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2721 MDW 18:11 → DEN 19:41 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2717 Southwest	MDW 06:41	DEN 08:16	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 271 Southwest	MDW 10:17	DEN 11:54	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2719 Southwest	MDW 12:07	DEN 13:39	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2718 Southwest	MDW 14:20	DEN 15:45	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 274 Southwest	MDW 16:21	DEN 17:47	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 155 Southwest	MDW 20:48	DEN 22:18	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2721 Southwest	MDW 18:11	DEN 19:41	14%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON