Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4079 MDW 08:31 → DTW 10:40 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 106 MDW 19:26 → DTW 21:31 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4079 Southwest	MDW 08:31	DTW 10:40	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4225 Southwest	MDW 12:45	DTW 14:52	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 106 Southwest	MDW 19:26	DTW 21:31	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 4674 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MDW 09:17	DTW 11:35	16%	9%	0.0%	84%
DL 4688 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MDW 13:26	DTW 15:44	19%	13%	1.2%	81%
DL 4690 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MDW 18:58	DTW 21:16	43%	20%	1.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON