Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 12:41, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Panama City Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → ECP 19:10DL 3053	6h 29m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131	6h 27m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094	5h 07m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	4h 48m	98%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON