Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 4449 at 15:14, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4449 Southwest	MDW 15:14	ELP 17:30	11%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → ELP 13:20DL 1002	8h 20m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 19:39 → ELP 20:50DL 1713	9h 09m	99%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON