Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2726 at 08:39 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day


WN 2726 Southwest	MDW 08:39	FLL 12:31	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4269 Southwest	MDW 18:04	FLL 21:57	20%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 11:25 → FLL 13:20DL 2063	6h 20m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295	6h 35m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229	6h 29m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → FLL 19:43DL 1670	6h 02m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	55m Detroit	DTW 12:30 → FLL 15:34DL 1294	5h 17m	84%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON