Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Spokane on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Spokane is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 10:01 → GEG 11:39DL 814	7h 39m	96%	88%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MDW 19:06 → MSP 20:51DL 4713 · flown by Endeavor	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 21:59 → GEG 23:06DL 2418	6h 00m	64%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON