Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 12:41, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	7h 48m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	6h 20m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 22:34 → JFK 00:46 +1DL 1632	6h 36m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	6h 06m	92%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:26 → DTW 15:44DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	2h 09m Detroit	DTW 17:53 → JFK 19:49DL 1316	5h 23m	93%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	2h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → JFK 22:09DL 5244 · flown by Endeavor	7h 20m	89%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON